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Heating Oil 100.2p/L
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103.0 p/L
1,000 litres · standard kerosene · ex VAT
Today's range
96.7p/L Low
112.3p/L High
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Today's market outlook

Daily briefing updated from live price data, Brent crude movements, and seasonal patterns. See where the market currently points, and why prices are moving. Not financial advice.

Updated 13 Nov
Updated daily · Not financial advice
Prices ease back as crude slips and momentum stays negative
Heating oil has fallen from a peak above 101p earlier this month to 99.9p today. Brent crude at $95.98 a barrel is well below its October high of $113, easing pressure on the pump. Geopolitical tension around Iran and thin European gas stocks are keeping supply nerves alive, but short term direction points downward.
Brent dropped sharply from $113 in October to below $96 now, and that fall is feeding through to kerosene prices. EIA data showing builds in crude and distillates adds further downward weight. However, Trump ruling out an Iran deal and Europe entering winter with its lowest gas stocks this decade could quickly reverse sentiment. Watch Iran headlines and any cold weather forecasts closely. The one month outlook range runs from 95.5p to 105.2p, reflecting how uncertain conditions remain.
1 month
↓ Falling
Forecast range: 95.5–105.2p/L ex VAT
9 of the 24 most comparable past periods ended higher a month on. Current pressure: balanced.
Kerosene prices have eased back from their mid week peak above 101p, helped by a softer Brent crude retreating from October highs and EIA data showing builds across crude and distillate inventories. However, Iran escalation risk and Europe entering winter with its lowest gas stocks of the decade could limit further falls. The one month outlook points to modest downward pressure, though the range remains wide.
3 months
↕ Uncertain
Forecast range: 93.3–108.1p/L ex VAT
11 of the 24 most comparable past periods ended higher three months on. Current pressure: balanced.
The three month picture is genuinely uncertain, with historical evidence split almost evenly and current pressures pulling in opposite directions. A potential Iran deal collapse flagged by Trump could push crude higher, while Venezuelan supply reforms and distillate builds offer some downward counterweight. The wide forecast range reflects how difficult it is to call direction at this horizon.
6 months
↑ Rising
Forecast range: 93.9–113.4p/L ex VAT
14 of the 24 most comparable past periods ended higher six months on. Current pressure: balanced.
Looking six months ahead, the balance of comparable past periods tilts toward rising prices, with Europe's historically low gas inventories and ongoing Middle East geopolitical tension providing a supportive backdrop as winter demand peaks and then transitions into spring restocking. Venezuela's opening of oil fields to outside operators adds some supply uncertainty. The outlook suggests upward pressure over time, though the range remains broad.

UK national 1,000 litre reference 99.9p/L ex VAT (104.9p inc VAT) · as at 13 Nov 2026. Directions, ranges and the timing signal are calculated from price history; the commentary is written with the help of an AI model. How we forecast


Price history

UK heating oil price
trends & indicators

Track how kerosene prices have moved against Brent crude oil. Use the chart to time your purchase. Prices typically follow crude with a 2–3 week lag.

Kerosene ppl vs Brent crude (USD/bbl)
UK national average, standard 1000L delivery, ex VAT
Kerosene (ppl, left axis)
Brent crude (USD/bbl, right axis)

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