As of 10 October, the UK national average for 1,000 litres of kerosene was 112.9p per litre ex VAT (118.5p inc VAT). The October 2026 month average across all recorded prices is 110p/L.
Heating oil is trading at 110p per litre for a 1000L delivery in October 2026, up from the September monthly average of 106.0p/L. The September average itself was 19.6p higher than the August average of 86.4p/L, reflecting a dramatic escalation driven by Middle East conflict and seasonal demand. Prices are elevated but have pulled back from the September peak of 114.4p recorded on 16 September.
Where prices stand
September 2026 was one of the most volatile months in recent memory for UK heating oil buyers. Prices opened at 92.1p on 1 September and climbed almost without interruption to a peak of 114.4p on 16 September, a rise of 22.3p in just over two weeks. The monthly average settled at 106.0p/L for 1000L deliveries, with prices ranging from a low of 89.1p to a high of 117.3p across the full delivery market.
From 16 September prices began to ease, falling back to around 108p by the final days of the month. That partial retreat was driven by some softening in crude and a modest easing of the most acute supply fears. Even so, prices closed September roughly 16p above where they started it, and the monthly average of 106.0p/L is 19.6p above the previous month's average of 86.4p/L. The current October market price of 110p/L sits above that September average, confirming that the elevated price environment is persisting rather than unwinding.
What has driven the market
Brent crude oil
Brent crude averaged $100.03 per barrel across September 2026, crossing back above the $100 threshold for the first time in several months and exerting direct upward pressure on UK kerosene retail prices throughout the month. The catalyst was an escalating Iran-US conflict that threatened Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, combined with drone strikes on Saudi pipelines and suspended Aramco loadings at Yanbu. These supply disruptions drove Brent sharply higher during the first three weeks of the month, with crude reported above $107 at points during the mid-month surge. A modest easing in the final ten days of September brought Brent back toward $97 to $99, contributing to the partial price retreat seen in retail kerosene after 16 September. Brent is currently trading at $96.73 per barrel as October begins, providing a floor that keeps retail prices well above 100p/L.
Sterling and the dollar
Sterling averaged 1.3410 against the US dollar across September 2026, slipping slightly to 1.33 in early October. Because heating oil is priced globally in US dollars, a weaker pound makes imports more expensive in sterling terms. The modest depreciation from 1.3410 to 1.33 adds a small but real upward pressure on UK retail kerosene costs at a time when crude itself is already elevated. Had sterling held firm or strengthened, buyers would have seen some natural offset to the crude price rise. Instead, the currency move has compounded the impact of higher Brent prices, contributing to October retail prices sitting above the already elevated September monthly average.
Seasonal demand
October marks the point in the year when domestic heating demand accelerates meaningfully across the UK. Tanks that were run down through summer are being refilled, and the first cold spells prompt urgent orders that stretch supplier capacity and reduce the leverage buyers have to shop around. This seasonal demand uplift was already visible in September, with the early month price rise partly attributed to autumn buying beginning ahead of schedule. With temperatures dropping further in October, that demand pressure will intensify. Buyers who deferred ordering in hope of a price fall may find that seasonal competition for deliveries adds a premium on top of whatever crude and currency movements dictate.
UK market factors
UK heating oil suppliers face a familiar autumn squeeze, with order volumes rising sharply at the same time that global supply risks are keeping wholesale costs high. The September price range of 89.1p to 117.3p per litre illustrates how much variation exists between suppliers, regions and order volumes, and that gap underlines the value of comparing quotes before committing. Suppliers in areas with high rural demand, such as Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the South West, are likely to see the sharpest demand spikes. The 500L price of 108.2p/L compared to the 1000L price of 110.0p/L in October shows that the usual volume discount has narrowed, reflecting tighter supplier margins and higher logistics costs when delivery routes are stretched.
Regional price variation
As a rough guide for October 2026:
- Northern Ireland: Historically the most price-sensitive region due to its near-total reliance on heating oil, Northern Ireland buyers face acute pressure as October demand rises sharply and any Middle East supply disruption feeds through quickly to local pump prices.
- Scotland: Rural areas of Scotland are experiencing strong demand ahead of what forecasters expect to be a cold winter, with delivery lead times extending and spot prices at the higher end of the national range.
- North of England: Prices are broadly in line with the national average but buyers in more remote areas are seeing delivery surcharges add to already elevated costs.
- Midlands and East Anglia: Demand is rising steadily and buyers are advised to act promptly rather than wait, as supplier availability tightens through October.
- South West: Strong seasonal demand and longer delivery routes are keeping prices close to the upper end of the national range, with little sign of competitive pressure easing costs for rural customers.
- Wales: Rural communities dependent on off-grid heating are seeing prices firm, and the combination of currency weakness and high crude is limiting any near-term prospect of meaningful relief.
The outlook ahead
The one-month forecast points to prices rising further into the 110.0p to 114.0p per litre range during October. Iranian supply disruptions and a reported Indian refinery blast are tightening the refined fuel market at a point when seasonal UK demand is accelerating. Brent holding near $97 provides a firm floor, and the balance of risks is skewed to the upside. Buyers should not assume that the partial retreat seen at the end of September signals a sustained downtrend.
Looking three to six months ahead, the forecast range widens considerably to 111.0p to 120.0p, reflecting genuine uncertainty. EU gas market stress is increasing demand for fuel switching into kerosene, adding incremental pressure. On the other side, growing output from Guyana and the United States could cap Brent by early 2027 and eventually ease prices from their winter peaks. The wide six-month range of 108.0p to 120.0p reflects the difficulty of forecasting in a market shaped by unpredictable geopolitical events, but the central case does not point to a significant price fall before spring 2027.
Prices are currently at 110.0p/L for 1000L deliveries, above the September average of 106.0p/L and heading into a period where both seasonal demand and supply risks point upward. The one-month forecast puts prices at 110.0p to 114.0p/L, which means today's price is at the lower end of where the market is expected to trade through October. Buyers with space to fill should strongly consider ordering now rather than waiting, as the combination of autumn demand, Middle East disruption and a softer pound makes a meaningful price fall unlikely in the short term. Comparing multiple supplier quotes remains essential given September's wide range of 89.1p to 117.3p/L across the market.
See our full seasonal buying guide for the month by month breakdown.
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