Heating oil prices
November 2026

Where prices stand

October 2026 saw the average 1000L price reach 110.9p per litre ex VAT, with prices ranging between 103.1p and 116.4p over the 31 days of data. The 500L average came in at 108.1p per litre, as expected slightly higher than the bulk rate. Prices opened October around 109.4p, dipped briefly toward 107.9p on 6 October, then surged sharply from 8 October onward, peaking at 113.6p on 9 and 14 October before pulling back through the final week of the month.

The trajectory through October was volatile rather than smoothly rising. After that mid-month peak, prices slipped back to 108.8p by 30 October before recovering slightly to 109.4p on the final day. The monthly average of 110.9p still marks a clear step up from September's 106p average, a rise of roughly 4.6%, driven almost entirely by crude oil costs rather than any UK supply or demand shock.

What has driven the market

Brent crude oil

Brent crude averaged $107.31 per barrel across October 2026, up sharply from levels closer to $91 seen in May. During October, daily brief logs tracked Brent climbing from around $96 at the start of the month to above $113 by the final days, with one reference putting it at $113.96 on 23 October. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure concerns, and a hurricane shutting in Gulf of Mexico production all contributed to supply anxiety. That crude surge translated directly into the sharp jump in retail kerosene prices seen between 7 and 9 October, when heating oil rose nearly 5p per litre in two days. With Brent now at $113.43 per barrel, the crude cost base going into November remains elevated.

Sterling and the dollar

The pound averaged 1.3284 against the US dollar in October 2026, a reasonably firm position that provided some limited cushion against crude price rises priced in dollars. Sterling has edged slightly higher to 1.34 in November, which modestly reduces the sterling cost of importing oil products compared to a weaker currency environment. The improvement is marginal given the scale of the crude rally, but a sustained pound above 1.33 does prevent the full force of dollar-denominated price increases from feeding through to UK pump prices. Any significant sterling weakness from here would add further upward pressure to retail heating oil costs during the winter period.

Seasonal demand

November sits firmly in the peak heating oil demand season for the UK, and that timing is directly relevant to price behaviour right now. Households that delayed ordering through summer and early autumn are now filling tanks as temperatures drop, creating concentrated demand across suppliers. This seasonal surge in order volumes typically narrows the window for competitive pricing, as suppliers have less flexibility and delivery slots fill quickly. The combination of winter demand peaking alongside Brent crude above $113 per barrel means buyers face cost pressure from both sides simultaneously, with little seasonal relief expected until late in the first quarter of 2027.

UK market factors

Supplier competition across UK heating oil markets remains active but pricing power has shifted toward suppliers given current crude costs and strong seasonal demand. Delivery lead times are likely stretching in rural areas as winter orders pick up, which can reduce the practical benefit of shopping around if buyers need fuel quickly. The October price range of 103.1p to 116.4p per litre illustrates that regional and supplier variation remains significant, and buyers willing to compare multiple quotes can still find meaningful savings. Group buying schemes, where neighbours consolidate orders, continue to offer below-average per-litre pricing for 500L customers who would otherwise pay a premium over the 1000L rate.

Regional price variation

As a rough guide for November 2026:

• Scotland and Northern Ireland: Prices at the upper end of the national range given longer supply chains and higher distribution costs, with 1000L likely above 112p in many areas.
• North of England: Prices closer to the national average, with good supplier competition in larger market towns helping keep rates competitive.
• Wales and West Midlands: Moderate pricing with some rural premium, buyers in isolated areas should compare quotes carefully before committing.
• South West England: Delivery surcharges apply in more remote parts of Devon and Cornwall, pushing effective prices above headline national averages.
• East Anglia and South East: Closer proximity to import terminals tends to keep prices near or slightly below the national average for high-volume orders.
• Northern Ireland: Remains one of the higher-cost regions due to separate supply logistics, though group buying schemes are well established and worth using.

The outlook ahead

The one-month forecast points to prices in the 109.0p to 115.0p per litre range through November 2026. Brent crude is approaching $120 per barrel according to current trader expectations, and the recent brief dip in retail prices from the October peak looks more like a pause than a reversal. Winter demand peaking, European gas prices above €101 per megawatt hour, and ongoing supply disruption risks all point toward the upper end of that forecast range being tested before the month is out.

Looking three to six months ahead, the forecast range rises to 111.0p to 125.0p per litre, reflecting a view that crude stays structurally elevated and European refinery capacity constraints limit product availability. US drillers have not meaningfully increased output in response to higher prices, and the UK's Jackdaw gas field approval is unlikely to add material domestic supply within the next six months. Buyers planning ahead for the rest of winter should treat current prices around 109p as a realistic base rather than a ceiling.