As of 21 July, the UK national average for 1,000 litres of kerosene was 87.1p per litre ex VAT (91.5p inc VAT). The July 2026 month average across all recorded prices is 79.4p/L.
Heating oil is sitting at 70.7p per litre for a 1000L delivery in July 2026, down from a monthly average of 76.9p in June and well below the 83.8p average recorded in May. Prices fell sharply through the second half of June, losing around 14p per litre from the 85.2p peak seen on 3 June to a low of 70.1p on 25 June. The market has since stabilised near 70p with modest upside pressure beginning to build.
Where prices stand
The average 1000L price across June 2026 was 76.9p per litre ex VAT, with a wide range of 64.9p to 87.4p reflecting how dramatically conditions shifted during the month. Prices opened June above 84p, held relatively firm in the first two weeks, then dropped sharply from 16 June onward as a US-Iran ceasefire removed the geopolitical risk premium that had supported crude oil since spring. By 25 June, kerosene had reached 70.1p, its lowest point of the month, before steadying in a narrow band between 70.1p and 70.9p for the final week.
The June average of 76.9p marks a clear step down from May's 83.8p, a fall of 6.9p or around 8 percent month on month. The 500L average came in at 74.0p, reflecting the usual premium smaller order buyers pay. Today's live price of 70.7p for 1000L sits comfortably below both monthly averages, meaning buyers ordering now are getting a meaningfully better deal than the June typical. The question is whether this level holds or whether recovering crude prices and seasonal demand start to push costs back up.
What has driven the market
Brent crude oil
Brent crude was a central driver of June's price action. The month began with Brent holding above $93 per barrel, supported by Middle East tensions and concerns about Iranian supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. That support collapsed in the second half of June following reports of a US-Iran peace framework, which removed the war risk premium that had pushed Brent sharply higher in spring. Crude fell back toward $72 to $76 per barrel during the final two weeks of June, directly pulling kerosene retail prices lower. The June average Brent price of $84.20 per barrel tells only part of the story given how wide the intra-month range was. Today Brent sits at $73.21, around 13 percent below the June average, which is one reason current retail prices are at their lowest point in months.
Sterling and the dollar
The pound held relatively stable during June, with the GBP/USD rate averaging 1.3320 against a current rate of 1.32. The slight weakening of sterling against the dollar between then and now adds a small amount of upward cost pressure on oil imports, since crude is priced in dollars and a weaker pound makes each barrel marginally more expensive to buy in sterling terms. The effect is modest at current levels but worth noting, as any further weakening of the pound would partially offset the benefit buyers are currently seeing from lower crude prices.
Seasonal demand
June and July are typically the quietest months of the year for heating oil demand. Most households are not running boilers for space heating, and suppliers have more capacity to compete aggressively on price, which tends to keep retail margins tighter than in autumn or winter. This seasonal softness has amplified the downward move in prices, with less buying pressure allowing crude price falls to feed through quickly to the pump. Buyers are now in the window where summer pricing conditions are most favourable, but that window is finite. Pre-winter ordering tends to emerge from late August onward and typically pushes prices higher well before temperatures drop.
UK market factors
UK supplier competition is running relatively hot at current price levels, with distributors keen to maintain volume through a slow demand period. The wide June price range of 64.9p to 87.4p per litre shows there is still significant variation between suppliers and regions, and buyers who shop around rather than sticking with a default supplier are likely to secure materially better prices. Delivery lead times are short in summer, giving buyers flexibility to hold off without running short. Split delivery costs mean 500L buyers continue to pay a premium, with the June 500L average of 74.0p sitting 2.9p above the 1000L equivalent. Buyers with storage capacity who can take a full 1000L order will get the best rates available.
Regional price variation
As a rough guide for July 2026:
- Scotland and Northern England: Prices in more rural northern areas tend to track closer to the top of the national range due to longer delivery distances, but summer is the best time to narrow that gap by ordering during lower demand periods.
- Wales and the South West: Delivery logistics to remote and coastal properties add cost, but competitive supplier coverage in these regions means shopping around still delivers meaningful savings at current price levels.
- Northern Ireland: Heating oil dependence remains high and pricing is sensitive to both sterling movements and local supplier capacity. Current low wholesale costs are feeding through but the premium over Great Britain averages persists.
- South East and Midlands: Strong supplier competition and good road access keep prices closer to the lower end of the national range. Buyers here are best placed to benefit from current market conditions.
- East Anglia and Lincolnshire: Rural agricultural areas see solid oil dependency and reasonable supplier competition. Prices are broadly in line with national averages at current levels.
The outlook ahead
The one month forecast points to prices in the 71.2p to 73.5p range, a modest rise from today's 70.7p. The main support comes from ongoing uncertainty around Hormuz shipping flows and the risk that any breakdown in the US-Iran framework could push crude quickly back above $80. Brent is currently holding near $73 after retreating sharply from spring highs above $100, which limits how far prices can rise in the near term but also suggests the floor is relatively close to where we are today. Buyers should not expect significant further falls from current levels.
Looking three to six months ahead, the forecast is more clearly upward. The three month view puts prices in the 72.0p to 76.8p range, rising to 73.5p to 82.0p over six months as autumn pre-fill demand emerges and seasonal buying lifts prices from September onward. Unresolved geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains a material upside threat that could accelerate that move. Buyers who can fill now and store adequately are likely to be looking back at current prices as a seasonal low point by the time winter orders begin.
Current prices at 70.7p per litre for 1000L are close to the lowest levels seen in June, when the market touched 70.1p on 25 June. The forecast points to gradual price increases over the coming weeks and more significant rises as autumn approaches. Buyers with available storage should seriously consider filling now rather than waiting, as the seasonal window of low summer prices is narrowing. A move from 70.7p to even the lower end of the six month forecast range of 73.5p would add around 28 pounds to a typical 1000L order.
See our full seasonal buying guide for the month by month breakdown.
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Previous monthly reports
- June 2026 — avg 71.50p/L at month start