As of 20 September, the UK national average for 1,000 litres of kerosene was 112.3p per litre ex VAT (117.9p inc VAT). The September 2026 month average across all recorded prices is 104.5p/L.
Heating oil for 1000 litres stands at 88.5p per litre ex VAT in September 2026, up from the August monthly average of 85.5p per litre. The 500 litre price has risen to 90.9p per litre, compared to 84.5p per litre averaged across August. Prices are being pushed higher by sustained geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict and the onset of autumn demand.
Where prices stand
August 2026 was a volatile month for heating oil. Prices opened at 89.0p on 1 August before falling sharply to a monthly low of 81.6p on 8 August, a drop of 7.4p in just eight days. That fall was driven largely by progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks and softer crude oil prices. A strong rebound followed between 10 and 13 August, with prices recovering to 87.2p by 11 August as Hormuz Strait tensions escalated. Prices then traded in a narrower band through the rest of the month, finishing at 86.5p on 31 August. The monthly average settled at 85.5p per litre, up from 82.4p in July 2026.
The August range of 78.1p to 90.4p per litre reflects how reactive the market was to geopolitical news rather than underlying demand fundamentals. Buyers who acted on or around 8 August secured prices close to the 81.6p floor, while those who delayed into mid-month faced costs approaching 87p. September has already pushed above the August average, with the current 1000 litre price sitting 3p higher than where August closed.
What has driven the market
Brent crude oil
Brent crude averaged $87.96 per barrel across August 2026, but the monthly journey was far from smooth. Crude dropped sharply in early August, briefly touching the high $70s as Iran deal speculation reduced the geopolitical risk premium. That move pulled kerosene prices down in lockstep. A reversal came as the Strait of Hormuz closure triggered fears over global supply, pushing Brent back toward $91 by mid-month. A second pullback in late August, linked to renewed Iran diplomacy, brought crude back to around $85 before fresh military strikes pushed it back above $88 by month end. Brent now sits at $89.07 per barrel, providing a firm floor for retail kerosene at current levels.
Sterling and the dollar
Sterling averaged 1.3532 against the US dollar across August 2026, a relatively stable position that provided modest support to UK buyers. Since oil is priced in dollars globally, a stronger pound reduces the cost of importing crude and refined products. The current GBP/USD rate of 1.35 is effectively unchanged from the August average, meaning currency movements are contributing very little in either direction to the September price change. The upward move in retail prices is therefore driven almost entirely by crude oil and market risk factors rather than currency weakness.
Seasonal demand
August is historically the quietest month for heating oil demand in the UK, with most households not yet refilling tanks ahead of winter. That seasonal low helped moderate retail prices during the summer period despite significant crude oil volatility. September marks the start of the demand recovery, as suppliers begin receiving orders from customers looking to top up before the heating season begins in earnest. This seasonal shift adds buying pressure at a time when global supply is already constrained, compounding the upward move seen in prices since the end of August. Buyers who delay into October and November typically face higher prices as demand peaks.
UK market factors
Supplier competition remains active but is becoming less of a price moderator as order volumes start to build. During August, the wide price range of 78.1p to 90.4p per litre reflected genuine regional and supplier variation, with buyers able to shop around for meaningful savings. As autumn demand increases, that gap tends to narrow as suppliers fill their delivery schedules. Delivery lead times are likely to extend into late September and October, reducing the ability to hold out for a better price. Buyers in more rural areas, where fewer suppliers compete, are already seeing prices at the higher end of the current range.
Regional price variation
As a rough guide for September 2026:
- Scotland: Prices tend to run at the higher end nationally due to longer delivery distances and higher rural demand concentration. Expect 1000L costs near the top of the current range.
- Northern England: Competitive supplier networks help moderate prices, but the onset of autumn demand is beginning to tighten availability in some areas.
- Wales: Rural communities continue to pay a delivery premium. Prices in isolated areas are tracking closer to the 500L rate despite ordering full loads.
- South West England: Strong supplier coverage in Devon and Cornwall provides some competition, but coastal and moorland deliveries carry additional cost.
- Midlands: Among the more competitive regions for heating oil, with multiple national and regional suppliers active. Buyers here have the most flexibility to compare quotes.
- Northern Ireland: Kerosene is the dominant domestic heating fuel and pricing tracks closely with wider UK wholesale movements. September price increases are already feeding through to retail quotes.
The outlook ahead
The one month forecast points to prices rising into the 87.0p to 91.0p per litre range for September 2026. The Iran conflict is sustaining a meaningful risk premium in global oil markets, and European gas prices hitting 2023 highs are adding further upward pressure on energy costs broadly. Brent is holding near $89 per barrel with little near term catalyst for a significant pullback. Combined with the seasonal demand increase, buyers should expect the current 88.5p per litre rate to represent the lower end of what is available through September rather than a temporary peak.
Looking three months ahead, the forecast range widens to 88.0p to 96.0p per litre. Prolonged supply disruption from the Iran conflict and a potential tightening of Atlantic basin supply as Russian oil loses pricing advantage in Asian markets both point to sustained pressure. Brent is expected to test the $92 to $95 range. The six month outlook carries more uncertainty, with a wide band of 85.0p to 98.0p reflecting the possibility that diplomatic progress on Iran or increased Venezuelan output could ease markets by early 2027. For now, the direction of travel is upward.
Prices are currently at 88.5p per litre for 1000 litres, already above the August monthly average of 85.5p and moving in the wrong direction for buyers who are waiting. The one month forecast of 87.0p to 91.0p and the three month forecast of up to 96.0p both suggest the window for lower prices is narrowing. Buyers who can fill now should do so before autumn demand pushes prices further and delivery slots become harder to secure. Comparing at least three supplier quotes remains worthwhile given the regional variation that persisted through August.
See our full seasonal buying guide for the month by month breakdown.
Free quotes from all suppliers delivering to your area. No account needed.
Previous monthly reports
- August 2026 — avg 89.00p/L at month start
- July 2026 — avg 70.70p/L at month start
- June 2026 — avg 71.50p/L at month start