As of 21 July, the UK national average for 1,000 litres of kerosene was 87.1p per litre ex VAT (91.5p inc VAT). The July 2026 month average across all recorded prices is 79.4p/L.
Heating oil prices have fallen sharply to 71.1p per litre for a 1000L delivery in June 2026, down from an average of 83.8p/L recorded across May 2026. The drop of roughly 12.7p/L represents a significant reduction in costs for domestic buyers. Prices are now sitting at levels not seen in recent months, driven by retreating crude oil and easing geopolitical tension.
Where prices stand
Across the two days of data collected in May 2026, prices moved from 85.3p/L on 30 May to 82.2p/L on 31 May, suggesting downward momentum was already building before June arrived. The monthly average for May settled at 83.8p/L for a 1000L order, with a wide range of 76.1p to 85.8p/L across the market, and 500L deliveries averaging slightly higher at 86.0p/L.
With current June prices now at 71.1p/L for 1000L, buyers are looking at a fall of over 12p compared to the May average. That is a meaningful reduction in absolute terms, equivalent to saving around 120 pounds on a standard 1000L fill. The prior month before May recorded no comparable data, so this May to June movement represents the clearest directional signal available.
What has driven the market
Brent crude oil
Brent crude averaged $91.12 per barrel during May 2026, but has since retreated sharply to $80.59 per barrel in June, a fall of just over 11 percent. That decline in crude has fed directly into lower wholesale kerosene costs, and UK retail prices have followed suit. The pullback from what had been an April peak of around $117 per barrel marks a significant correction and has removed a substantial portion of the cost pressure that was pushing pump prices higher earlier this year.
Sterling and the dollar
The pound traded at an average of 1.3400 against the US dollar during May 2026, slipping to 1.32 in June. Because crude oil and refined products are priced in dollars, a weaker pound makes imports more expensive in sterling terms. The drop from 1.34 to 1.32 has partially offset the benefit of cheaper crude, meaning UK buyers have not captured the full benefit of the crude price fall. Even so, the net effect has still been a meaningful reduction in retail prices.
Seasonal demand
June sits firmly in the low demand season for heating oil in the UK. Most households have switched off boilers and are not actively consuming fuel, which reduces pressure on suppliers to compete aggressively for urgent orders. Lower demand also means distributors have more flexibility on scheduling, which can help buyers secure better prices when shopping around. Summer buying can offer genuine savings compared to the autumn and winter period, and the current price level makes a top up worth considering for those with storage capacity.
UK market factors
Supplier competition tends to be stronger in summer as distributors look to keep tankers moving and cash flowing during quieter months. That competitive dynamic is visible in the current spread between 500L and 1000L prices, with the 500L rate coming in at 67.8p/L compared to 71.1p/L for 1000L, an unusual inversion that may reflect short term promotional pricing or localised oversupply in some areas. Buyers willing to shop across multiple suppliers are likely to find the most competitive deals during this period.
Regional price variation
As a rough guide for June 2026:
- Scotland and Northern England: Rural areas typically carry a small delivery premium over southern regions, but falling wholesale costs are helping to narrow that gap this summer.
- Wales and South West England: These areas often see competitive pricing during low season as local distributors look to maintain volume through quieter months.
- South East England: Urban proximity and higher supplier density tend to keep prices competitive, and that should remain the case while demand stays low.
- Northern Ireland: Cross border supply dynamics and logistics costs mean prices here can differ from the GB mainland, and buyers should compare local quotes carefully.
- Midlands and East Anglia: Agricultural demand provides a steady baseline for distributors in these regions, which can support supply reliability even in summer.
The outlook ahead
The one month forecast points to further falls, with prices expected to land in the 68.0p to 73.0p/L range. That would represent a continuation of the current downward trend, supported by Brent crude sitting well below its April highs and the easing of the Israel and Hezbollah conflict reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into prices. Buyers who hold off for a few weeks may see slightly lower prices, though the gap between current levels and the forecast range is already relatively narrow.
Looking further ahead, the three and six month forecasts both point to a reversal of this downward trend. Prices are expected to rise to 71.0p to 79.0p/L over three months and 74.0p to 86.0p/L over six months, driven by risks around the Strait of Hormuz following the breakdown of US and Iran talks, ongoing disruption to Russian fuel supply after drone strikes on infrastructure, and rising shipping insurance costs. Anyone who can store fuel now is buying at what may prove to be a seasonal low.
Current prices of 71.1p/L for 1000L represent the lowest levels seen in recent months and are sitting at the top end of the one month forecast range of 68.0p to 73.0p/L. There may be a small amount of further downside available over the next few weeks, but the three and six month outlook points firmly upward. Buyers with storage capacity should seriously consider filling up now rather than waiting for autumn when prices are forecast to climb back toward the mid to high 70s and potentially beyond. Locking in at current levels looks like a sound decision given the medium term risks around global supply.
See our full seasonal buying guide for the month by month breakdown.
Free quotes from all suppliers delivering to your area. No account needed.